CO2 increase records, in context

Just in case the last four posts went by too quickly, this post puts the Top-30 increases over 52 years of Muana Loa data in context. Let's begin with a look at the Top-30.

You might be thinking that TheRaven's Mega Melt Enthusiasm is misplaced. Where's the evidence that we face impending acceleration of global temperature increase, melting ice and rising seas? The Top-30 list helps discern some patterns.

Each year in the list is color-coded. This makes it easy to see that 1998 contributed more Top-30 records than any other year. Also, note that the magnitude of CO2 increase in the Top-30 ranges from 2.64ppm up to 3.92ppm. Those increases are +30% to almost 2-times their respective trailing, 5-year averages. Given the concentration of Top-30 jumps in CO-2 over the past dozen years, this is evidence of ongoing trend acceleration.

Said concentration, over the past dozen years, is a bit less obvious. This summary improves clarity.

Top-30 records have been created in only ten years (out of 52). Twenty-three records (3/4th's) have occurred in over just the past dozen years and, thus far, 2010 is the 5th-most productive year on record. While 2010 won't deliver the future-shock awesomeness of 1998, I've got high hopes for 2011. Given population and economic growth that's occurred since 1998, ongoing recovery in the world economy and comparatively greater limitations in Earth's ability to absorb atmospheric carbon,  I'm looking at 2011 pretty much as the Cowboys view it. TheRaven and the Cowboys both say....

Wait 'til next year!

This is more like it!

October sure restored TheRaven's Mega-Melt Enthusiasm!

As you might recall, April set a new all-time record and May nearly set another one. This promising one-two punch was followed by solid but, quite frankly, unspectacular CO2 growth in June through September.

Hello, October!

CO2 jumped an impressive +2.88ppm over October 2009, the second-highest October increase in the history of Muana Loa data! Perhaps equally impressive, October 2010 recorded the 16th highest annual increase of any month over the past 52 years.

If global ice melt were the Olympics, 2010 has shaped up as a fairly decent year. In the harbinger competition, 2010 has won a gold (April),a silver (October) and a bronze (May). We'll just overlook the disappointing stretch from June through September.

Your Mega-Melt Enthusiast is back, with a vengeance!

Nothing to get enthusiastic about

Picking up where the prior post left off, we turn to August 2010 CO2.

August 2010 saw a +2.23ppm gain vs. August 2009. This increase is somewhat above trailing 5-year average annual increase, but far outside the Top-30 increases in the entire Muana Loa data set.

Mega-Melt Enthusiasm will have to sit on ice, waiting for September.

Meanwhile, here's August:

Mega Melt Enthusiast

CO2 isn't the only made-man agent of ice destruction, but NOAA's Muana Loa observatory has been recording and publishing monthly CO2 levels since 1958. That's a great data set for advancing my new role as a ....

Mega-Melt Enthusiast!

We're not talking about some fast food concoction. Nope, this is the real deal, the defining event of the 21st century, unfolding in real time for everyone but our elected Republican politicians. TheRaven says: stop worrying about government gridlock and embrace the rising seas.

CO2 levels are simply the harbinger of the inexorable loss of all surface ice. Rising temperatures follow rising CO2 and rising seas follow rising temps. CO2 hasn't been this high in the past 15-30 million years and, when it was, Earth was much warmer, there was very little surface ice and Hollywood didn't need CGI to conjure up gigantic reptiles.

It's possible that CO2 has never risen so much in such a short time span, except for that unfortunate accident 65 million years ago that ended the careers of a few dinosaurs.This blog is a guide to your future. Enjoy the ride.

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TheRaven has a bit of catching up to do. This post will cover July 2010 and the next three will bring us current with October. You know the drill: CO2 levels rise in summer and fall in winter. This isolating cycle has marched steadily higher for the past 50+ years and has greatly accelerated over the same period. The rate of average annual increase roughly tripled between 1960 and 2000. The Great American Banking Disaster, which put the developed world's economy into a tailspin,  didn't put a scratch in CO2 growth. 

TheRaven is on an enthusiastic hunt for new monthly records, defined as new highs in year-over-year CO2 growth. Sadly, July was a disappointment. July 2010 saw +2.29ppm CO2 increase vs. July 2009. This puts July 2010 pretty far outside the Top-30 increases seen over the entire data series. The July 2010 increase was modestly higher than trailing 5-year average.

5-year trend update

Click image to see full size

This post updates a chart initially presented here with a few months more data. The same Muana Loa data set published by NOAA used for related posts on atmospheric CO2 is the basis for this chart. Muana Loa data is converted to different forms of visual information to provide alternative illustrations of the global CO2 trend.

In this case, 606 months of data have been compressed into average annual growth calculated over 5-year periods. This approach smooths out variation found in any particular year and creates a simple view of a 50-year trend. Each bar represents a 5-year average, except for the bar on the right, which reports the 6-months ending in June 2010. This bar is updated as new data is obtained.

The chart reports something so basic it might be missed: CO2 doesn't decline, it only increases. The last monthly decline was recorded in September 1974. There hasn't been a single annual reduction in CO2 since the Muana Loa data series was initiated in 1958. Two projections of future CO2 levels are presented here.

In another example of journalism practiced as the art of ignoring the obvious, the New York Times finally published an article which suggests that carbon consumption stimulated by explosive growth in the global consumer class will outrun implementation of clean energy policies and technologies. Since it's the Times, the article presents a narrow view, limited to China. While China's projected future carbon output is frightening, the issue is much broader. The global middle class is experiencing unprecedented, unstoppable growth across the developing world.

Stay tuned for future updates.

CO2 trend map

This post provides an alternative presentation of Muana Loa CO2 data used to prepare analysis of April, May and June. In fact, the chart shown below was produced in the same Excel file used to generate monthly trend charts presented in earlier posts.

Year-over-year change in CO2 occurring each month, from January 1960 through June 2010, is presented below. That's 606 data points in one chart. The chart used color to parse data points between three levels of change in CO2, with the highest level (monthly increases greater than 2ppm) shown in red. This is a different view of the CO2 trend over the past 50 years, which was previously discussed here.

Click image to view full-size

No record in June

Mega ice melt enthusiasts were disappointed with June's Muana Loa CO2 reading. Atmospheric CO2 increased 2.61ppm over June 2009, representing 0.67% growth in the month. The June CO2 reading stood at 392.04ppm, almost 1 point lower than last month. Atmospheric CO2 typically peaks in May and bottoms in September or October, with an unbroken series of annual C02 increases dating back to initiation of Muana Loa data, in 1958. Muana Loa data is reported by NOAA.

The year-over-year increase recorded in June was another data point towards the inevitability of climate change, however, the pick-up in global economic growth hasn't yet translated to new monthly records for CO2 growth, except for April.

April set a record!

This post provides an update to Dismal Science.

April set a record you probably didn't hear about. You likely saw news that last month was the warmest April on record, as measured by average global surface temperature and by ocean surface temperature. January-April 2010 also set a new average temperature record for the 4-month period. Records date back to 1880. The Little Ice Age ended in 1850.

The news you didn't hear is that a new April record was set for year-over-year increase in carbon dioxide (CO2). Atmospheric CO2 in April 2009 was 389.46 parts per million (ppm) and was 392.39 ppm in April 2010, for a year-over-year April increase of 2.93 ppm. Data obtained from the Mauna Loa Observatory and is published by NOAA here. The data series begins with March 1958.

Measuring the monthly change in CO2 across a rolling 12-month window is relevant because CO2 experiences seasonal fluctuations. It rises in the (Northern hemisphere) spring and summer and falls during the winter. April 2010 was the 14th highest monthly increase in CO2 in the entire data series. CO2 has almost continuously increased on a year-over-year basis. There have been only eight out of 613 months since March 1959 in which CO2 levels declined. The last monthly decline occurred in September 1974.


The following chart plots minimum and maximum annual changes in CO2 occurring in April, from 1960 to 2010, measuring minimum and maximum values on a rolling 12-month basis. The color area is the spread between minimum and maximum increase. Long plateaus indicate periods in which no new records were being set. Choppy areas indicate shorter time intervals between new maximum or minimum values. The white line is 10-year moving average.

 Click chart to view full-size

Twenty-three of the top-30 monthly CO2 increases (in all months) have occurred in the past 12 years. "Top-30" equates to top-5%. The prior new monthly record was set in March 2009. Monthly annual increase records for June, July, August, September, October, November and December were all set in 1998. Prior to 1998, the other seven monthly records in the top-30 are found only in 1988 and 1973. TheRaven will be monitoring NOAA data to report new monthly records as they occur.

Since the worst global economic crisis in over 75 years didn't put a dent in CO2 growth, TheRaven expects that global economic recovery coupled with relentless population growth will trigger a few new CO2 growth records.