Photo: TheRaven
In use 2006-2009
Showing posts with label 2009. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2009. Show all posts
Friday, December 31, 2010
Monday, July 12, 2010
Internet access demographics
The prior post looked at Internet access by state. This post provides national Internet access demographics for 2007 and 2009, using the same data source, survey results published by the U.S. Census Bureau.
We begin with 2007:
And conclude with 2009:
Observations:
We begin with 2007:
Click image to see full size
Click image to see full size
- Meaningful decline in dial-up
- Significant growth in broadband access for all levels of education attainment
Internet access
Internet access has been in the news lately. The Federal government has a website dedicated to broadband programs. Actually, there's likely a ton of government sites. The FCC addresses broadband here and here while California state government covered it's broadband initiatives here and Seattle's site is here. Finland has made Internet access a legal right while France deems it a human right.
You can test the speed of your Internet connection with free tools like Speedtest (it works) or the FCC's free tool, located here. The FCC's tool works, too.
The Pew Research Center has a site devoted to Internet studies. Recent press coverage has excoriated America's low level of national access and slow transmission rates vs. Internet powerhouses like Korea. The idea that America isn't monolithic was lost in the hullabaloo. Census Bureau surveys documenting home Internet access by state were overlooked.
The Census Bureau conducted home Internet access surveys in 2001, 2003, 2007 and 2009. Published data is simple but difficult to use in tabular form. TheRaven converted data from the four surveys into a set of charts that report how Internet access improved between 2001 and 2009. These charts also enable comparison between the states.
First, the states in alphabetic order:
Internet access in the highest states compares decently with international ratios. This is not an excuse, but comparison to Korea, Finland, et al should bear in mind our 50-state system of resource allocation, which accrues from a document called the Constitution. Not to fear. Even Mississippi will catch up, some day.
You can test the speed of your Internet connection with free tools like Speedtest (it works) or the FCC's free tool, located here. The FCC's tool works, too.
The Pew Research Center has a site devoted to Internet studies. Recent press coverage has excoriated America's low level of national access and slow transmission rates vs. Internet powerhouses like Korea. The idea that America isn't monolithic was lost in the hullabaloo. Census Bureau surveys documenting home Internet access by state were overlooked.
The Census Bureau conducted home Internet access surveys in 2001, 2003, 2007 and 2009. Published data is simple but difficult to use in tabular form. TheRaven converted data from the four surveys into a set of charts that report how Internet access improved between 2001 and 2009. These charts also enable comparison between the states.
First, the states in alphabetic order:
Click image to see full size
Next, the same results are sorted from highest-to-lowest level of 2009 access:
Click image to see full size
Sunday, July 11, 2010
No record in June
Mega ice melt enthusiasts were disappointed with June's Muana Loa CO2 reading. Atmospheric CO2 increased 2.61ppm over June 2009, representing 0.67% growth in the month. The June CO2 reading stood at 392.04ppm, almost 1 point lower than last month. Atmospheric CO2 typically peaks in May and bottoms in September or October, with an unbroken series of annual C02 increases dating back to initiation of Muana Loa data, in 1958. Muana Loa data is reported by NOAA.
The year-over-year increase recorded in June was another data point towards the inevitability of climate change, however, the pick-up in global economic growth hasn't yet translated to new monthly records for CO2 growth, except for April.
The year-over-year increase recorded in June was another data point towards the inevitability of climate change, however, the pick-up in global economic growth hasn't yet translated to new monthly records for CO2 growth, except for April.
Monday, July 5, 2010
Sunday, July 4, 2010
Tuesday, June 1, 2010
Is R&D off-shoring killing us?
Richard Florida asks a few questions about R&D off-shoring trends in this post at theAtlantic.
TheRaven ran a quick test to gauge whether R&D off-shoring has caused measurable harm to the U.S. economy. The operative question is whether the economic subset associated with innovation is growing faster or slower than the labor market as a whole. Jobs associated with R&D should grow if the innovation process is out-pacing the economy and compensating for off-shoring. Conversely, if R&D employment is falling, then increased R&D off-shoring can be viewed as an existential threat, not the more benign balancing of national strengths in a global economy.
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) occupation employment data was used to address this question. The BLS publishes pay range and employment data for a constant list of 800 occupations, each May. I have this data by 4-digit NAICS (North America Industry Classification System) code for 2005 through 2009. The BLS publishes data one year after it's initially collected, so, for example, the May 2010 database reports labor market conditions as of May 2009.
There are 47 occupations that can be reasonably associated with R&D - nearly all of the scientific and engineering occupations. Most people in these occupations are not devoted to R&D because R&D is typically just a few percentage points of an overall organization budget. There are exceptions, such as contract research firms, academic labs, etc., but we're dealing with occupation data across the U.S. economy. Looking at these 47 occupations should provide a decent proxy measure, especially given consideration of: (1) labor market contraction between 2008 and 2009, and that (2) R&D is a well-known budget casualty in tough times.
Findings:
1. From 2005 through 2009:
a) The 18 science occupations had a +15% aggregate employment gain. Fourteen of 18 occupations had higher employment levels in 2009, vs. 2005.
b) The 29 engineering occupations had a +7% aggregate employment gain. Twenty-three of 29 occupations had higher employment levels in 2009, vs. 2005.
c) All 47 occupations had a +9% aggregate employment gain. Thirty-seven of 47 occupations had higher employment levels in 2009. The overall gain was 164,900 jobs.
2. Between 2008 and 2009:
a) The 18 science occupations had a +1.5% aggregate employment gain. Eleven of 18 occupations had higher employment levels in 2009, vs. 2008.
b) The 29 engineering occupations had a (1%) aggregate employment loss. Sixteen of 29 occupations had higher employment levels in 2009, vs. 2008.
c) All 47 occupations had (0.4%) aggregate employment loss. Twenty-seven of 47 occupations had higher employment levels in 2009, vs. 2008. The net loss was (8,370) jobs.
This group of occupations did better than the labor market as a whole over the 2005-2009 period and especially between 2008 and 2009. BLS data represents the bulk of the US labor market. The NAICS data-sets exclude only farming, domestic help and freelancers.
Click image to view full-size
TheRaven ran a quick test to gauge whether R&D off-shoring has caused measurable harm to the U.S. economy. The operative question is whether the economic subset associated with innovation is growing faster or slower than the labor market as a whole. Jobs associated with R&D should grow if the innovation process is out-pacing the economy and compensating for off-shoring. Conversely, if R&D employment is falling, then increased R&D off-shoring can be viewed as an existential threat, not the more benign balancing of national strengths in a global economy.
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) occupation employment data was used to address this question. The BLS publishes pay range and employment data for a constant list of 800 occupations, each May. I have this data by 4-digit NAICS (North America Industry Classification System) code for 2005 through 2009. The BLS publishes data one year after it's initially collected, so, for example, the May 2010 database reports labor market conditions as of May 2009.
There are 47 occupations that can be reasonably associated with R&D - nearly all of the scientific and engineering occupations. Most people in these occupations are not devoted to R&D because R&D is typically just a few percentage points of an overall organization budget. There are exceptions, such as contract research firms, academic labs, etc., but we're dealing with occupation data across the U.S. economy. Looking at these 47 occupations should provide a decent proxy measure, especially given consideration of: (1) labor market contraction between 2008 and 2009, and that (2) R&D is a well-known budget casualty in tough times.
Findings:
1. From 2005 through 2009:
a) The 18 science occupations had a +15% aggregate employment gain. Fourteen of 18 occupations had higher employment levels in 2009, vs. 2005.
b) The 29 engineering occupations had a +7% aggregate employment gain. Twenty-three of 29 occupations had higher employment levels in 2009, vs. 2005.
c) All 47 occupations had a +9% aggregate employment gain. Thirty-seven of 47 occupations had higher employment levels in 2009. The overall gain was 164,900 jobs.
2. Between 2008 and 2009:
a) The 18 science occupations had a +1.5% aggregate employment gain. Eleven of 18 occupations had higher employment levels in 2009, vs. 2008.
b) The 29 engineering occupations had a (1%) aggregate employment loss. Sixteen of 29 occupations had higher employment levels in 2009, vs. 2008.
c) All 47 occupations had (0.4%) aggregate employment loss. Twenty-seven of 47 occupations had higher employment levels in 2009, vs. 2008. The net loss was (8,370) jobs.
This group of occupations did better than the labor market as a whole over the 2005-2009 period and especially between 2008 and 2009. BLS data represents the bulk of the US labor market. The NAICS data-sets exclude only farming, domestic help and freelancers.
Click image to view full-size
Conclusion: while the labor market data is broad-brush, employment trends in occupations associated with R&D run counter to adverse macroeconomic circumstance and suggest that increased R&D off-shoring has not materially affected U.S. R&D-associated employment. Therefore, it's not likely that the off-shoring trend discussed in theAtlantic piece has inflicted meaningful harm on the U.S. economy.
PS - this look at employment trends and pay range patterns in four selected science occupations provides further information:
Monday, May 31, 2010
April set a record!
This post provides an update to Dismal Science.
April set a record you probably didn't hear about. You likely saw news that last month was the warmest April on record, as measured by average global surface temperature and by ocean surface temperature. January-April 2010 also set a new average temperature record for the 4-month period. Records date back to 1880. The Little Ice Age ended in 1850.
The news you didn't hear is that a new April record was set for year-over-year increase in carbon dioxide (CO2). Atmospheric CO2 in April 2009 was 389.46 parts per million (ppm) and was 392.39 ppm in April 2010, for a year-over-year April increase of 2.93 ppm. Data obtained from the Mauna Loa Observatory and is published by NOAA here. The data series begins with March 1958.
Measuring the monthly change in CO2 across a rolling 12-month window is relevant because CO2 experiences seasonal fluctuations. It rises in the (Northern hemisphere) spring and summer and falls during the winter. April 2010 was the 14th highest monthly increase in CO2 in the entire data series. CO2 has almost continuously increased on a year-over-year basis. There have been only eight out of 613 months since March 1959 in which CO2 levels declined. The last monthly decline occurred in September 1974.
The following chart plots minimum and maximum annual changes in CO2 occurring in April, from 1960 to 2010, measuring minimum and maximum values on a rolling 12-month basis. The color area is the spread between minimum and maximum increase. Long plateaus indicate periods in which no new records were being set. Choppy areas indicate shorter time intervals between new maximum or minimum values. The white line is 10-year moving average.
Twenty-three of the top-30 monthly CO2 increases (in all months) have occurred in the past 12 years. "Top-30" equates to top-5%. The prior new monthly record was set in March 2009. Monthly annual increase records for June, July, August, September, October, November and December were all set in 1998. Prior to 1998, the other seven monthly records in the top-30 are found only in 1988 and 1973. TheRaven will be monitoring NOAA data to report new monthly records as they occur.
Since the worst global economic crisis in over 75 years didn't put a dent in CO2 growth, TheRaven expects that global economic recovery coupled with relentless population growth will trigger a few new CO2 growth records.
April set a record you probably didn't hear about. You likely saw news that last month was the warmest April on record, as measured by average global surface temperature and by ocean surface temperature. January-April 2010 also set a new average temperature record for the 4-month period. Records date back to 1880. The Little Ice Age ended in 1850.
The news you didn't hear is that a new April record was set for year-over-year increase in carbon dioxide (CO2). Atmospheric CO2 in April 2009 was 389.46 parts per million (ppm) and was 392.39 ppm in April 2010, for a year-over-year April increase of 2.93 ppm. Data obtained from the Mauna Loa Observatory and is published by NOAA here. The data series begins with March 1958.
Measuring the monthly change in CO2 across a rolling 12-month window is relevant because CO2 experiences seasonal fluctuations. It rises in the (Northern hemisphere) spring and summer and falls during the winter. April 2010 was the 14th highest monthly increase in CO2 in the entire data series. CO2 has almost continuously increased on a year-over-year basis. There have been only eight out of 613 months since March 1959 in which CO2 levels declined. The last monthly decline occurred in September 1974.
The following chart plots minimum and maximum annual changes in CO2 occurring in April, from 1960 to 2010, measuring minimum and maximum values on a rolling 12-month basis. The color area is the spread between minimum and maximum increase. Long plateaus indicate periods in which no new records were being set. Choppy areas indicate shorter time intervals between new maximum or minimum values. The white line is 10-year moving average.
Click chart to view full-size
Since the worst global economic crisis in over 75 years didn't put a dent in CO2 growth, TheRaven expects that global economic recovery coupled with relentless population growth will trigger a few new CO2 growth records.
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