November, my heart beats for thee

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Nothing makes a Mega-melt Enthusiast happier than a big jump in atmospheric CO2. TheRaven's last post on CO2, using data reported by the Mauna Loa observatory, expressed sincere hope that we could end 2010 with a bang. November got pretty darn close, posting the 2nd highest year-over-year jump in CO2 seen in any November since the data series began, in 1958. In November 2010, CO2 jumped 2.69ppm over November 2009, a 0.7% increase.

Even better, November 2010 posted one of the 30 largest year-over-year jumps seen in 633 months of data! This means that 2010 is now in 2nd place, tied with 2003 and 1988, as the year with most number of Top-30 entries.

Considering that the Top-30 represents less than 5% of Mauna Loa monthly data, 2010 has earned its place in the annals of melting ice. The odds are, however, that most Top-30 records will be replaced over the next few years. Global population is approaching 7 billion. The global middle class is growing exponentially faster than general population. For example, China's new car market was one-tenth of America's ten years ago. Now it's one-half, with no indications that growth will ever stop.

China recently finished the major phase of it's inter-province expressway system, 13 years ahead of schedule. China's expressway system is second only to the US in terms of mileage. India's economy is now growing at double digit rates. It's fair to say that the aggregate developing world economy has been growing faster - in some cases, much faster - than the US and Euro-zone over the past three years. China's economy has expanded by roughly one-quarter since the Great American Banking Disaster began to unfold. No wonder it's middle class is exploding.

The leading indicator for CO2 is economic activity. Specifically, the size and purchasing power of the global middle-class. CO2 is in turn a leading indicator for global average temperature, which is a nearly real-time indicator for ice melt. The average annual increase in Mauna Loa data over the past 10 years is 2ppm. Top-30 increases range from 33% to 96% above 10-year average. Twenty-three of the Top-30 are clustered in the past 12 years. The next illustration shows temporal positioning of year-over-year monthly increases that exceed long term average growth, represented by the red "peaks".

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With 2010's strong CO2 performance and slow improvement in developed nation economies, 2011 may be a breakout year.  Perhaps not as awesome as 1998, but even those records will eventually fall. Visit each month for updates and lots of mega-melt enthusiasm.

While global-warming denialism is beyond ridiculous, the notion that less than 5% of global population can lead the developing world away from carbon-based economics is almost as bad. The developing world follows our economic playbook. In context of unintended consequences, we did our job too well. The previous illustration depicts an accelerating trend. When historians search for the defining event of the 21st century, some may conclude that it occurred in 1944.

5-year trend update

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This post updates a chart initially presented here with a few months more data. The same Muana Loa data set published by NOAA used for related posts on atmospheric CO2 is the basis for this chart. Muana Loa data is converted to different forms of visual information to provide alternative illustrations of the global CO2 trend.

In this case, 606 months of data have been compressed into average annual growth calculated over 5-year periods. This approach smooths out variation found in any particular year and creates a simple view of a 50-year trend. Each bar represents a 5-year average, except for the bar on the right, which reports the 6-months ending in June 2010. This bar is updated as new data is obtained.

The chart reports something so basic it might be missed: CO2 doesn't decline, it only increases. The last monthly decline was recorded in September 1974. There hasn't been a single annual reduction in CO2 since the Muana Loa data series was initiated in 1958. Two projections of future CO2 levels are presented here.

In another example of journalism practiced as the art of ignoring the obvious, the New York Times finally published an article which suggests that carbon consumption stimulated by explosive growth in the global consumer class will outrun implementation of clean energy policies and technologies. Since it's the Times, the article presents a narrow view, limited to China. While China's projected future carbon output is frightening, the issue is much broader. The global middle class is experiencing unprecedented, unstoppable growth across the developing world.

Stay tuned for future updates.

CO2 trend map

This post provides an alternative presentation of Muana Loa CO2 data used to prepare analysis of April, May and June. In fact, the chart shown below was produced in the same Excel file used to generate monthly trend charts presented in earlier posts.

Year-over-year change in CO2 occurring each month, from January 1960 through June 2010, is presented below. That's 606 data points in one chart. The chart used color to parse data points between three levels of change in CO2, with the highest level (monthly increases greater than 2ppm) shown in red. This is a different view of the CO2 trend over the past 50 years, which was previously discussed here.

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No record in June

Mega ice melt enthusiasts were disappointed with June's Muana Loa CO2 reading. Atmospheric CO2 increased 2.61ppm over June 2009, representing 0.67% growth in the month. The June CO2 reading stood at 392.04ppm, almost 1 point lower than last month. Atmospheric CO2 typically peaks in May and bottoms in September or October, with an unbroken series of annual C02 increases dating back to initiation of Muana Loa data, in 1958. Muana Loa data is reported by NOAA.

The year-over-year increase recorded in June was another data point towards the inevitability of climate change, however, the pick-up in global economic growth hasn't yet translated to new monthly records for CO2 growth, except for April.

Trendlines

Photo by TheRaven

Maysville, Ky - Oct. 2008

Graphics that Excel 1

Microsoft Excel is TheRaven's weapon of choice in the war on data. You know data. Not the StarTrek character, who didn't espouse data at all. "Data" in StarTrek was actually the exact opposite - he provided information. Excel is the single best tool for converting mass amounts of useless data into valuable information. Wholesale improvements made to technology underpinning Excel2007 led to a huge increase in capacity. Microsoft also achieved a dramatic improvement in Excel's visual tools, which include charts and graphics. All Excel2007 improvements carry through to Excel2010.

TheRaven constructed a simple image using only Excel graphics. It isn't going to win any awards but it does illustrate some of the flexibility and color options now provided with plain-vanilla Excel. It's theme expresses TheRaven's view regarding a key climate change topic. (Hint: basic chemistry).

If "basic chemistry" didn't make the lights go on, TheRaven doesn't want to be annoying. After all, no one will ever accuse TheRaven of being an artist. The image theme ("ice will melt") refers to inevitability of permanent, consequential climate change in context of a particular compound. Each object in the image represents a methane molecule, composed of one carbon atom and four hydrogen atoms.

Methane is discussed as either as a climate remediation solution or a ticking time bomb. It's posited to replace coal and possibly gasoline. Rising ocean temperatures have sparked fear over possibly catastrophic implications of methane hydrate. Such fears haven't spurred meaningful action. As of 2007, the US got 49% of it's electricity from coal, which is only three percentage points less than in 1990.

Methane in the atmosphere imposes a potent greenhouse effect. It traps multiple orders of magnitude more heat than carbon dioxide. Substitution of methane for coal or uncontrolled release due to suddenly melting of methane hydrates ends up in the same place. Substituting methane for coal would cut CO2 output in half per equivalent unit of energy. This may seem like a step in the right direction but the remaining half is still huge and this solution doesn't address the biggest carbon emitter (China) and the future reigning champ (India).

As China builds coal-fired generating plants like mad and India is desperate to supply 500,000,000 people with electricity, replacing U.S. coal with methane would lower the global price for coal. This would provide a perverse economic incentive to China and India to burn more of it. Given the relentless pace of Chinese and Indian economic growth, the net beneficial impact on global CO2 would likely be negligible. Viewing methane as part of the solution only guarantees that the only ice left on Earth will be indoors and that Mardi Gras will be looking for a new home.

UPDATE: The New York Times reviews a new HBO documentary on domestic gas drilling here.

Isn't what?

Image: New York Times
Caption: TheRaven

Hard

Image: New York Times
Caption: TheRaven

What kind?

Image: New York Times
Caption: TheRaven

No record in May (but close)

This is the second post in what will be a series tracking monthly year-over-year changes in atmospheric CO2. Last month set a record but May merely came close, with the 3rd-highest year-over-year increase for the month since initiation of the Muana Loa data series.

The following chart plots minimum and maximum annual changes in CO2 occurring in May, from 1960 to 2010, measuring minimum and maximum values on a rolling 12-month basis. The color area is the spread between minimum and maximum change. Long plateaus indicate periods in which no new records were being set. Choppy areas indicate shorter time intervals between new maximum or minimum values. The white line is 10-year moving average.

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Here are the top-3 year-over-year CO2 increases which have occurred in May:

1. May, 2003  +2.96 ppm

2. May, 1998  +2.86 ppm

3. May, 2010  +2.76 ppm

Good governance

The Daily Beast has rated Tennessee the most corrupt state in the union, but Nashville has a current example of good governance, reported here. Mayor Karl Dean and his staff are planning an expansion of a heretofore small buyout program for homes in flood-prone areas. While exact details regarding the scope and operation of  program aren't known, the speed of Nashville's response to the obvious - climate change has increased the severity of floods and reduced the interval between major events - stands in sharp contrast to New Orleans dysfunctional government.

New Orleans has done nothing as areas below sea level have been reclaimed by former residents. This non-response to understandable but misguided human emotions only guarantees future disaster. The highest natural elevation in New Orleans is a mere 12 feet above sea level. New Orleans will not survive the full brunt of climate change and its lower elevations will surely suffer well before the rest of the city is lost.

The article mentions that Nashville's buyout program is voluntary. A perfectly fine approach for homeowners but TheRaven urges a tougher stance on landlords, who may not respond to voluntary incentives with equal alacrity. TheRaven notes that government has two forms of eminent domain at its disposal. The public form creates headlines and lawsuits while stealthy use of rigorous codes enforcement gets results.

With Birmingham mired in scandal and debt, New Orleans sinking and Atlanta drowning in traffic, Nashville is showing another way it can distinguish itself from the Other South. Nashville's biggest long-term problem is crime. If, in addition to forward-thinking on climate change, Nashville solves its crime issues, it will emerge as the south's destination city.

UPDATE: The Nashville Scene reported on the effect urban planning decisions had on the flood in this July 8th article. Apart from local urban planning history, which suggests that Nashville-area builders lived in a "property-rights era" until 1991, the piece makes a telling point about modern safeguards and moral hazard. Only one of Nashville's historic homes sustained meaningful flood damage. Before the era of flood insurance, FEMA and dam systems, folks made better site location decisions. Their potential cost of failure with regards to property investment and floods was absolute.

The Risible Class

Definition of risible

1. Relating to laughter or used in eliciting laughter.

2. Eliciting laughter; ludicrous.

3: Arousing or provoking laughter; especially laughable

Etymology: Late Latin risibilis, from Latin risus, past participle of ridere (to laugh)

Leaders of the Risible Class

        

      

      

Dismal Science

Climate scientists only have themselves to blame for the growing denialist cacophony. The recent flap over climate data isn’t the reason. Rather, failure to invite economists to the climate party has left solution advocates bereft of their best possible weapon. Paul Krugman’s recent piece in the Times Sunday Magazine is hardly an auspicious entre. He hews to cap ‘n trade dogma in tones of a grade-school lecture. We’d do better if Cap ‘n Crunch led the fight. America’s fear of foreigners is ripe for exploitation towards development of exportable, carbon-free technologies.
 

From the beginning of the Holocene to 1950, the human population grew from close-to-nothing to 2.5 billion. From 1950 to 2050 - a mere 100 years (a geological eye-blink) - human population will grow at least another 6.5 billion people. Since global population is now 6.8 billion, it is virtually certain that 2050 will see 9+ billion people.
 

Along this time line we've seen an explosion of capitalism that spawned the biggest prosperity surge in human history. Every person on the planet who experiences a rising living standard uses more carbon. For example, meat is the first item purchased in larger quantities. You can't blame people for wanting to better feed their children. The big news is that most of world is just beginning to ramp up their carbon output.
 

China passed the US in total carbon emissions 2 years ago, yet China's per-capita GDP is only one-eighth the US (in purchasing power parity). India is much further back, with per-capita GDP less than one-half of China's and 800 million people (2.6 times the US population) living in poverty. What do you think happens when billions of poor people just slightly improve their living standard? Now consider what happens when the global middle class adds 2 billion people (7 times US population) over the next 20 years.
 

Global annual CO2 increase fell one-third in the early-90s recession. The current recession - which is far worse - hasn't dented CO2 output. Not a freaking scratch! The developing world is already driving the CO2 bus for a simple reason: developed nations account for only 10% of global population. The pace of global annual CO2 output has more than doubled over the past 50 years. Funnily enough, human population doubled over the same period.
 

We’re going to add a similar number of people over the next 40 years and they, along with most people already living, will become progressively larger consumers of carbon-based processes, like making electricity or growing beef. There are many things climate change denialists don't consider. My favorite is the global explosion in consumer finance. Twenty years ago you couldn't finance a motorcycle in Vietnam, get a mortgage in Brazil or get personal credit in Indonesia. While China gets all the bad press for air pollution, completed its national highway system ~10 years ahead of schedule and bought more new cars last year than we did (for the first time), replacement of bicycles with motorcycles in Hanoi (BTW, Vietnam has the same population as Germany), a Brazilian housing boom and Indonesian economic growth sparked by consumer credit are overlooked.
 

It isn’t us anymore. CO2 growth is global, rapidly-accelerating and apparently unstoppable. China's economy will double every 9 years at trend-line growth rates and India's will double every twelve. China offered a vague 20% carbon reduction at the last climate meeting. Do the math on the net increase in carbon output over the next 9 years. The last time CO2 was at present levels (388ppm), there was less global ice, seas were higher, northern Canada was a temperate forest and reptiles were a lot bigger. The blindingly simple truth about climate change is that: CO2 is a leading indicator; average temperature lags behind CO2; sea level lags behind temperature. Given population growth, the global prosperity explosion and CO2 levels that were last seen 30 million years ago, why is anyone surprised by rising temperatures and melting ice?
 

The funny thing about climate change denialists is that free market signals on climate change reality show up in many of their mailboxes, as higher insurance premiums or notices of canceled coverage. Liberty Mutual, Allstate, StateFarm & others have either walked away from lucrative markets, exponentially increased premiums, red-lined coastal markets, gotten in fights with state regulators or all of the above. You'd expect to see the first free market signals on climate change from the property insurance industry. If it was mere corporate greed major insurers wouldn't be walking away from billions of premium dollars. Last year, an insurance industry association publicly issued a recommendation that its members should measure and disclose climate change risk. Yet another unmistakable signal that the dismal science matters most to acceptance of climate change solutions.
 

Data sources: NOAA, CIA World Factbook, TheEconomist; UN; US Census Bureau

UPDATE (July 5, 2010) - The New york Times finally gets a clue. This article says "...even as Beijing imposes the world’s most rigorous national energy campaign, the effort is being overwhelmed by the billionfold demands of Chinese consumers". Even though TheRaven predicted growth in global consumer demand would outrun the transition from carbon-based energy, The Times projection of China's CO2 output is shocking.

UPDATE (August 5, 2010) - the New York Times gets another clue with tolerable reporting on political stability, fast growth and emergence of a consumer society in the worlds 4th largest country and 3rd largest democracy. Pay no heed to descriptions of Indonesia as a "Muslim country". Indonesia is a pluralist democracy in which religion plays a similar role to American Christianity. THe artcile deosn't mention climate change but you can connect the dots.