Unskilled labor?

The immigration debate shouldn't even be a discussion. This is America, immigration is what we do. TheRaven previously explained immigration as both a moral cause and a saving grace with a look at the  unpleasant demographic alternative called "Europe". This post looks at anti-immigrant hysteria from a different angle.

There's a persistent myth that immigrants can't be trained for new vocations. The Right assumes that adults from low-tech environments lack the background necessary to acquire high-tech skills. Such assumptions are proclaimed as fact and spewed at a credulous, white audience. America's history refutes this notion several times over. This post provides only one example, in only one city, with a series of images obtained from the Library of Congress.

Three generations ago, America turned to its largest pool of unskilled people to fill a massive need for high-tech manufacturing labor. Recruiting an enormous army & navy while also embarking on an unprecedented surge in military manufacturing caused social norms to be tossed aside. The vast majority of this new manufacturing army had never held a wrench, power tool or had previously seen the inside of a factory, let alone operate hydraulic presses or master difficult skills such as welding. Most women who manned our factories during WW2 had zero prior experience with any manufacturing process, tool or concept because they were previously "housewives".

Welcome to Nashville, 1942.

Vultee Aircraft (California) bought Stinson Aircraft Corp. in 1940. Vultee paid $2.3 million for Stinson and got a recently completed, $2 million factory in the deal. A Time magazine report on the transaction noted Tennessee's "plentiful labor" and speculated that Vultee might expand the Stinson workforce ten-times over, to 7,000 employees. Time didn't mention that such expansion would depend heavily on a female work force.

These photos were taken for the Army in August 1942 and February 1943. While these photos appear to be staged, the women were genuine workers.

Click any image in post to view full size

Click any image in post to view full size

Click any image in post to view full size

The wartime economy caused the US female manufacturing workforce to roughly quadruple in just a few years. The Arsenal of Democracy legacy was built in large part by "a bunch of housewives", some of whom began their wartime employment with fewer job skills than less educated immigrants possess today.

Vultee went through several changes in ownership and was acquired by Vought in 2003. The original Vultee plant has grown to 2.1 million square feet. Aircraft components have been produced for over 70 years at 1431 Vultee Boulevard, Nashville, Tennessee. The legacy of a quickly-skilled workforce that made a big contribution lives on in Nashville, but not in the hearts or minds of Right-wing demagogues.

All photos: Library of Congress

Developing nation

To get where you're going, it's helpful to know where you've been. Anti-immigrant, anti-reform invective is a rehash of 19th century racism and ignorance. Besides concocting myths such as "anchor babies", the Right has construed poverty as a disease associated with brown skin. Worse, they've construed immigrant poverty as a permanent condition. America's history of  absorbing successive waves of immigrants makes this notion risible, yet it refuses to die.

Ben Franklin worried about Germans. Hordes of white newcomers were ghettoized in the mid-19th century (they were Irish). The process would be repeated with Italians. Eastern Europeans were considered both foreign and inferior. Bigots were convinced that Cubans were a pox on a blighted city named Miami. Instead, they saved it. Vietnamese and Laotian immigrants provided a nativist crisis in the 1970s & 1980s. Said crisis hasn't been heard from in the past quarter-century. Which brings us to the current crop of short immigrants with large families and little formal education, who hail from depressed economies with high unemployment, speak a foreign language and worship a"foreign power".The invective wouldn't be so pathetic if it weren't so damn old.

Worst of all, the "modern" Right pays no attention to our record of home-grown poverty and internal mass migration. To this day, skin color provides no immunity from poverty in America. Not so long ago, poverty was simply color-blind. America was largely a "developing nation" well into the 20th century. Impoverished white people moved from Oklahoma to California for exactly the same reasons that impoverished brown people cross our southern borders today.

This post presents nine photos borrowed from Shorpy. Eight were taken by Dorothea Lange, who worked for the Farm Security Administration. Her work is a color-blind chronicle of misery, poverty and despair.

Click any image in this post to view full size

August 17, 1936. Blythe, California. "Drought refugees from Oklahoma camping by the roadside. They hope to work in the cotton fields. There are seven in family. The official at the border inspection service said that on this day, 23 carloads and truckloads of migrant families out of the drought counties of Oklahoma and Arkansas had passed through from Arizona entering California." Dorothea Lange for the Resettlement Administration.

August 1936. "People living in miserable poverty. Elm Grove, Oklahoma County, Oklahoma." Dorothea Lange for the Farm Security Administration.

November 1936. "Daughter of migrant Tennessee coal miner. Living in American River camp near Sacramento, California." Dorothea Lange for the Farm Security Administration.

February 1939. Calipatria, Imperial Valley. Farm Security Administration emergency migratory labor camp. Daughter of ex-tenant farmers on thirds and fourths in cotton. Had fifty dollars when set out. Went to Phoenix, picked cotton, pulled bolls, made eighty cents a day. Stayed until school closed. Went to Idaho, picked peas until August. Left McCall with forty dollars "in hand." Went to Cedar City and Parowan, Utah, a distance of 700 miles. Picked peas through September. Went to Hollister, California. Picked peas through October. Left Hollister for Calipatria for early peas which froze. Now receiving Farm Security Administration food grant and waiting for work to begin. "Back in Oklahoma, we are sinking. You work your head off for a crop and then see it burn up. You live in debts that you can never get out of. This isn't a good life, but I say that it's a better life than it was." Photo and caption by Dorothea Lange.

June 1938. Nettie Featherston, laborer's wife with three children near Childress, Texas. "I just prayed and prayed and prayed all the time that God would take care of us and not let my children starve." Photo and caption by Dorothea Lange.

Oregon, August 1939. "Unemployed lumber worker goes with his wife to the bean harvest. Note Social Security number tattooed on his arm." (Shorpy scholarship/detective work: a public records search shows that 535-07-5248 belonged to Thomas Cave, born July 1912, died in 1980 in Portland. Which would make him 27 years old when this picture was taken.) Dorothea Lange.

"Destitute pea pickers living in tent in migrant camp. Mother of seven children. Age thirty-two." Nipomo, California. February 1936. Photograph by Dorothea Lange. The anonymous subject of this famous Depression-era portrait known as "Migrant Mother" came forward in the late 1970s and was revealed to be Florence Owens Thompson . She died in 1983.

August 1939. Agricultural migrants. "Family who traveled by freight train. Toppenish, Washington. Yakima Valley." Dorothea Lange for the Farm Security Administration.

October 1938. Farm wife and baby waiting in the car while her husband attends the auction. Oskaloosa, Kansas. Photograph by John Vachon.

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All photos & captions sourced from Shorpy.
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Wikipedia has a decent post on the Farm Security Administration. The Wikipedia post has links to FSA photographers. Lange is probably the best known. The FSA ran an extensive photography program which can be accessed at the Library of Congress.

Once upon a time, in America

America's sad immigration situation seems to make headlines every other day. Unfortunately, as mainstream media struggles to survive the early 21st century, it eschews thoughtful analysis for sensationalist headlines. This gives amoral idiots like Tom Tancredo too much ink.

This post repeats a comment  TheRaven added to an immigration discussion held by the web's most enlightened community. Click here to access.

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Immigration is a central narrative in my life and it is a primary narrative in the American Experience. I am, therefore, enraged to the point of speechlessness when 19th century anti-Irish invective is recycled against Central & South Americans. Anti-immigrant rhetoric has been nothing more than simple pride in ignorance over the 85,489 days since America was born.

I'll try to put the legal status of undocumented residents in an appropriate macro context with a moral fable.

Once upon a time, in America...

...there were two towns named Whiteville and Brownville. The residents of Whiteville needed a new community center, however, they were hard-pressed to fund the project. Their tax rates were onerous and because Whiteville residents were obsessed with appearances, much of their disposable income went to essentials such as RVs, SUVs, John Deere lawnmowers, swimming pools, $50,000 bathrooms and $100,000 kitchens. Many Whiteville folks were heavily in debt, but they sure looked prosperous. A campaign to fund construction reached only 50% of its goal. Whiteville was shocked and appalled. In desperation, city fathers met to find a solution.

Prosperous Whiteville had a 5% unemployment rate. Brownville unemployment was the same - with an appended zero. Whiteville residents were largely educated and employed in white-collar professions. Brownville was full of carpenters, dry wall installers, roofers, landscapers and masons, with a sprinkling of electricians and plumbers. Brownville folks had provided construction labor to Whiteville for a long time. Whenever a Whiteville person would disparage the limited formal education found in Brownville, they'd usually end with "...but they sure do work hard! Brownville people were devoutly Christian (and largely Catholic), a fact which seemed oddly lost on Whiteville, which was devoutly Christian (but largely Protestant).

With families to feed, the Brownville tradesmen banded together and pitched Whiteville an offer that couldn't be refused. They'd build the community center at rock-bottom wages. Their skill, efficiency and willingness to work for a fraction of what Whiteville trades people were typically paid meant that the community center could be built for only 50% of budget. The offer was accepted. A project manager from Brownville was appointed because Whiteville people communicated only in business cliches, which trades people didn't quite grasp. The community center's architect was, of course, from Whiteville.

The project manager proved quite competent, with thorough knowledge of construction techniques and regulatory compliance. Permits were obtained for every phase of the work. Whiteville building inspectors were amazed at the quality of construction and found little wrong. All problems noted were immediately corrected, without argument. The Community center was completed ahead of schedule and slightly under budget. A grand unveiling was scheduled.

And then, there was a problem.

Whiteville's official motto was Progress through Conformity. City fathers had enacted thousands of small regulations over preceding decades aimed at furthering such goal. Each rule was well-intended but in a macro sense, largely frivolous. Bowing to the community's strongly expressed desire to maintain proper appearances, they expanded construction codes to include cosmetic items, with special attention given to window treatments.

The project manager was not aware of permit and inspection requirements for window treatments. While the community center's foundation was solid, its framing was sound and its mechanical systems perfect, its window dressing was completely non-compliant. An uproar ensued. Editorials were written excoriating the project manager's lack of knowledge regarding crucial regulations. Because few people in Whiteville had ever worked in the skilled trades, the essential qualities of the community center were never discussed, but its safety was repeatedly impugned.

The city council met in a special session to resolve the crisis. They debated the functional worth of the community center versus the importance of window dressing. Was it more important that Whiteville youth had a safe recreational environment or that Whiteville's code book be followed to the last letter?

The mayor stepped in after the council became hopelessly deadlocked. He was, by trade, a trial lawyer, well-versed in clever arguments that appealed to core values found in the average Whiteville jury. There was only one possible solution and his eloquence could easily sell it.

"Window dressing is the core of Whiteville's community identity" he intoned. "Window dressing is enshrined in our rule of law. It is, in fact, who we are!" The only solution, he explained, was that the community center would have to be torn down and rebuilt, with the new project funded by a bond issue; funded in turn by higher taxes. He viewed such wanton destruction as a fair price for preservation of window dressing.

By unanimous vote, the council agreed.

Not qualified to lead

A certified radiologic technologist is an important healthcare occupation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports 212,490 CRTs employed nationwide in 2009. Median earnings in 2009 were $43,539 with the 75pct point on the occupation's national pay scale averaging $53,137. You may have met a few CRTs; they are employed mostly by hospitals and imaging centers. Preparatory education programs have trended towards bachelor's degrees in recent years but many CRTs have Associates degrees or non-degree certification, such as the Governor of Arizona, Jan Brewer.

This makes Ms. Brewer the only Governor who lacks a college degree. CRT (and similar) training programs develop valuable technical skills (and Ms. Brewer may have been the best CRT in the history of medical imaging) but the critical thinking skills needed for effective political leadership are born only in rigorous degree programs offered by accredited institutions.

Ms. Brewer recently signed into law anti-immigration legislation that humiliated intelligent Arizonans and embarrassed the United States. She broadly fits the white-hate demographic - 62 years old, lacking higher education attainment. Is it any wonder that she was so easily manipulated by right-wing extremists to legalize racial profiling? The law was authored by Russell Pearce, a former sheriff's deputy with links to hate groups.

Pearce's checkered past includes an accusation of domestic violence and later dismissal from a state government post. Pearce attributed half of Arizona's homicides to illegal immigrants to prod public fear into support of his execrable law. Since law enforcement crime statistics do not include perpetrator immigration status, it's obvious the Pearce was lying through his teeth. Pearce's hatred of brown people extends to babies. Given his druthers, the criminalization of babies will scare most undocumented expectant mothers away from prenatal care. By voting in a bill written by Pearce, Arizona's political leadership has embraced baby cruelty as state policy. Needless to say, Pearce is also uneducated. Is it any wonder he pals around with Nazis like JT Ready?

Pearce claimed ignorance of Ready's Nazism after above photo was made public. Ready's unabashed racial invective has drawn attention from the Southern Poverty Law Center. According to the SPLC, Ready marched with neo-Nazi's in 2007 (above). This led Republican leaders to demand his ouster as Maricopa County GOP precinct committeeman. Ready's own final solution to immigration called for land mines along the border. Considering that Pearce has 35 years experience in law enforcement, his feigned ignorance of Ready's Neo-Nazism is ridiculous.

The SPLC reports that Ready has also maintained racist views in an online profile:

"Sporting his trademark star-spangled necktie, Jason "J.T." Ready is familiar to Phoenix, Ariz., residents, law enforcement officers and journalists as a City Council gadfly and oft-quoted member of the anti-immigration Minuteman Civil Defense Corps.

Online, though, Ready is better known to the nearly 2,000 registered users of New Saxon, a newly popular white-supremacist social networking website, as "Viking Son." His self-created New Saxon profile displays photographs of Ready wearing a kilt, donning a bulletproof vest, and scouring the desert for "illegals" through a pair of binoculars. Ready lists his "turn-ons" as "a woman who loves our Race, Kultur, Heritage, History and Future," identifies the racist fantasy novel The Turner Diaries as his favorite book, and describes himself as a big fan of neo-Nazi teen pop duo Prussian Blue."

The SPLC provides additional background on Ready in profiles of 20 racist/extremists. Ready's includes this motto: "The Purity of the Aryan Race is the most precious resource Nature has to offer All of Humankind." The New Saxon website is an active tool of the National Socialist Movement (NSM). It's intentions remain undisguised.

The Columbia, Missouri Police Department prepared an insightful briefing on NSM before a "protest rally" at the University of Missouri. This excerpted page explains why NSM adherents make frequent reference to "88".

This post has only scratched the surface of a hate network beneath Arizona's new law. Ms. Brewer may or may not be an overt racist but her lack of education has enabled willful ignorance of legislative ties to groups that worship Hitler. Arizona's immigration law is founded on un-American principles. Her actions make it plainly obvious that Ms. Brewer is not qualified to lead.

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UPDATE Aug, 5, 2010: Utah gets a clue. Click here for an insightful analysis by The Economist.

Destiny

The Euro has been in the news lately and media attention has, as usual, focused on one factor in a multivariate situation. Greek sovereign debt is an issue but the Greek economy is so small that if it vanished tomorrow, Europe would forget, in macro-economic terms, by this weekend. The media uses European sovereign debt to explain the Euro crisis.

Hand-wringing now extends to Spain and Portugal. If sovereign debt itself were the core problem, Japan would have imploded decades ago. High sovereign debt is generally a self-solving problem so long as national economies continue on a reasonable growth trajectory (e.g., Japan, to-date). Therefore, the real issue is investor expectations regarding Europe's future growth.

Why are investors concerned?

Because demographics is destiny.
 
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UPDATE: You can download the tool used to prepare charts in this post. The tool is stored on Docstoc, download it here. Zero Excel skills are needed. The tool is operated only with a mouse. Use it with Excel2007 or Excel2010. Do not attempt use with Excel2003. There's also a brief, illustrated walkthrough, a PDF document which can be downloaded here.
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Using historic and projected population data from the UN, we begin with a look at world population trends between 1950 and 2050.

Click image to see full size

The UN data covers 196 countries. Between now and 2050, the UN Population Division projects that:

* Average life expectancy will increase 10%, from 69 to 76 years
* Global population will increase one-third, from 7.0 to 9.5 billion people
* Median age will increase one-third, from 29 to 39 years
* Fertility will fall 20%, 2.5 to 2.0 births per woman
* The ratio of persons aged 15-64 years old to total population, the broadly-defined productive population ratio, will fall from 64% to 61%.

Except for exacerbation of climate change caused by a one-third increase in human population and continued, out-sized growth in the global middle-class, this global picture is fairly benign. It should be noted that increasing life expectancy, not birth rate, now drives population growth. Current macro-economic concerns are driven by how the global picture breaks down between regions and countries.

Asia, North America and Latin America do not materially deviate from global averages. However, comparison between Africa and Europe helps to define Europe's emerging demographic crisis. Europe and Africa have been headed in opposite demographic directions for decades. We begin with Africa:

Click image to see full size

 Africa forecast:

* Average life expectancy will increase 21%, from 56 to 68 years
* Population will double, from 1.0 to 2.0 billion people (in only two generations!)
* Median age will increase 45%, from 20 to 29 years
* Fertility will fall by half, from  4.7 to 2.4 births per woman
* The productive population ratio will leap from 56% to 65%.

Developed economies have enjoyed productive population ratios that cluster around 65% since 1950. Japan had the highest ratio in 1970 (69%) and peaked 20 years later at 70%. Japan's productive population ratio is now 64%. The U.S. is a model of consistency, compared to other nations. Our ratio remains in a fairly tight  61% to 67% range over 1950-2050.

History suggests that the productive population ratio dividing line between growing vs. stagnant economies is about 60%. The Africa forecast suggests that with establishment of genuine governance and rule of law, Africa's improving demographics could finally propel it out of poverty.

We now look at Europe:

Click image to see full size

Europe forecast:

* Average life expectancy will increase 8%, from 76 to 82 years
* Population remains stuck at 760 million
* Median age will increase 18%, from 40 to 47 years
* Fertility will rise, from  1.5 to 1.8 births per woman
* The productive population ratio will drop from 66% to 53%.


In 1950, Europe accounted for 20% of global population while Africa comprised 8%. By 2050, these positions will be reversed. Europe's fertility has been below replacement rate since 1980 and is forecast to remain below replacement rate up to 2050. Europe's current life expectancy exceeds Africa's forecast improvement, 40 years hence, by 10%.

Europe faces an epic demographic crisis. Its productive population ratio is forecast to fall one-fifth over the next 40 years. With the exception of the UK, European countries lack immigration policies rooted in demographic reality. By retaining the Pound instead of adopting the Euro the UK effectively monetized its (comparatively) progressive immigration policy. Brilliant!

Let's look at where the European demographic forecast is most adverse, the 12 countries in UN's definition of "Southern Europe":

Click image to see full size

Southern Europe forecast:

* Average life expectancy will increase 5%, from 80 to 84 years
* Population will slightly increase, to 170 million
* Median age will increase 20%, from 41 to 49 years
* Fertility will rise, from  1.4 to 1.8 births per woman
* The productive population ratio will plummet, from 64% to 49% (a 23% decline in ratio)

Compared European averages, Southern Europe is already older, living longer, with lower birth rate and proportionately less productive population. The forecast calls for these demographic differences to get worse. Southern Europe includes Greece, Portugal and Spain. The region also includes Italy, whose demographic crisis has sparked fertility incentives from a few local governments. Southern Europe's productive population ratio is forecast to fall by almost one-quarter.

Why will a steep drop in productive population ratio kill growth in developed nations? Won't technological advances improve productivity in the remaining workforce? While the answer to the 2nd question is "most likely" the answer to the first is "because you must also consider life expectancy". The short answer to the first question is "because taxes will rise".

The flip-side of Southern Europe's 23% fall in productive population ratio is that the unproductive population ratio will jump 42%. Compare this to Africa, where the unproductive population ratio will decline by 20%.  In a macroeconomic context, demographics is truly a two-edged sword. European governments, particularly in Southern Europe, will raise taxes in future to support an exploding old-age population. An average life expectancy of 84 translates to a minimum of 20 unproductive years for each healthy person.

By missing the bigger issue the media has also missed the most likely next big debt crisis. The only developed country in worse demographic shape than Europe is the 2nd largest economy on the planet. Japan's productive population ratio is forecast to fall to 51% by 2050 as its already-stellar life expectancy climbs to 87 years. Deflation already casts a pall over expectations for the Japanese economy.

This analysis also explains why a seeming turnaround in attitude regarding the dollar is really no surprise. The U.S. will get older, its productive population ratio will fall and taxes will rise but the real issue is the relative magnitude of these trends. Total U.S. population will increase one-third over the next 40 years and the productive population ratio will remain above 60%. It turns out that being a nation of immigrants is both a moral cause and a saving grace.

(All analysis by TheRaven).